After listing your main criteria and choosing acceptable alternatives for the Decision Analysis, you have to take a look at your risks. That´s the last step before deciding.
The current best alternative doesn´t have to be the best solution. Risk is what jumps out of the copse right in front of you without any warning if you don´t look for it, potentially. Don´t decide overhasty, nor go for a false investment – avoid the trouble.
Exactly at this point you should raise your head, look into the bright future and imagine with all your own experience and that of others of what can go wrong if you walk THIS way. Only think of the disadvantages. This is about adverse impacts:
- what can go wrong?
- which must criteria are only met by 20%?
- where can future marginal conditions change?
- which info is insecure?
You need to measure such expected disadvantages somehow. The best way to do it is by asking for the likeliness that THIS incident may arrive and try to clip its range and consequences for you or the company. Give the most impactful a “10” and go down to “0”. If you´re not comfortable with numbers use the words “high”, “medium” and “low”.
If you are able to measure an alternative with a “10” – throw it over board. It carries the fact of a 100% crash. If you find many risks, accept it and turn to the facts how to minimize these risks. The FINAL Decision shall be the one which includes all must-criteria and the wish-criteria, in combination with the lowest adverse impacts.
Then check its advantage and disadvantages again and ask yourself if you can and will live with it. If you´re a risky personality you will always have an eye on the advantages. Still every decision is as good as its information and criteria. At least all you have to answer with is a clear “yes” or a “no”.
It´s a fact that we mostly have to decide in crisis situations. These ate the ones with the most lack of information and therefore very insecure to follow into the future. A decision is an acting in uncertainty. It takes courage to act in spite of fear and it is a kind of life completion, something managers typically deal with.
BE A DECISION MAKER. BE OUTSTANDING.
rita jaskolla – Leadership Architect –